Will Big Tech Stocks Score in 2018?

Paul Meeks talks with Brian Sullivan of Trading Nation on CNBC on what to expect for technology stocks in 2018. Hear what he has to say on subjects like tech performance, Altaba, and Bitcoin. 

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December 2017 Market Review from Ron Sloy

It’s our last financial market recap of 2017! We’re ending this year on a high note. Hear from Ron Sloy, fonder of Sloy, Dahl & Holst in Portland, OR on what we saw from the market this last month and what to expect from the Dow in the days ahead and in 2018.

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Ron Sloy Receives Affiliate of the Year Award

Ron Sloy recently received the coveted 2017 Affiliate of the Year Award from the Northwest Utility Contractors Association (NWUCA). In announcing the award, the presenter gave a short introduction to Ron and why he was chosen for the award. 
 
The presenter began with a recap of Sloy, Dahl & Holst, highlighting that the firm has been operating since 1986, with offices in Seattle and Sacramento. He went on to say that Ron and his firm have been profiled in Forbes and have also been quoted in Fortune, Money, and Bloomberg magazines.
 
Paul Meeks, Sloy, Dahl & Holst’s new CIO, was also highlighted during the introduction. The presenter noted how Paul is a regular contributor on CNBC and part of CNBC’s platinum portfolio managers.
 
The presenter pointed out that Sloy, Dahl & Holst was honored to be named one of the top 300 investment advisors in the US by the Financial Times of London for two consecutive years.
 
As an investment advisor with the NWUCA corporate account, Ron was noted to be a great supporter of NWUCA and a guardian and grower of the organization's investment account.
 
The presenter ended the introduction by saying that, for all these reasons, the NWUCA was proud to present Ron with the 2017 Affiliate of the Year Award.
 

Advice For Purchasing Stock In Cloud-Related Business From CIO Of Sloy, Dahl & Holst

Paul Meeks, Sloy, Dahl & Holst CIO and portfolio manager, recently discussed cloud-related business stock with the traders on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report. During his appearance, Meeks discussed his thoughts on the leaders in this industry, cloud figure reports, the valuation of these companies, and his personal stance on purchasing this type of stock.

According to Meeks, companies that are leading the way in this industry are Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Amazon Web Services. Although Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud are doing well, Amazon Web Services stands out from the pack by a large margin. Additionally, this gap between Amazon and other cloud-based businesses is forecasted to remain quite large.

Despite Amazon’s success, some question its popularity and wonder how long it can continue. At what point will another cloud-based service take up the reins? Meeks suggests that investors keep an eye on the international segment and look at a turnaround in profitability. Meeks also believes there could be a rise in momentum in Microsoft Azure.

When determining the best valuation method for cloud-related stock, Meeks recommends using a price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG). This ratio gives you a complete picture of a stock’s fundamentals, rather than just its price to earning (P/E) ratio alone. A PEG ratio is calculated by dividing the P/E by its projected growth in earnings. Another tip from Meeks is to review the company’s growth and positioning relative to its total available market (TAM).

As Amazon blazes forward and is forecasted to become a four-figure stock, investors would be wise to cut back a bit. This may be particularly important for those who have the stock heavily weighted in their portfolio. And when it comes to Meeks personal advice on when purchase cloud-based stock, he notes that his method is to watch for the dips and then snatch them up.
 

2017 First Q Market Review | Sloy, Dahl, & Holst, Inc.

For the first quarter of the new year, we picked right up where last year left off. The ‘Trump Trade’ is in full effect, as domestic equities have continued their post election run on hope and expectation of a better business friendly environment. The possibilities of tax reform, a rollback of the current heightened regulatory environment, and meaningful infrastructure spending have all contributed to the current ongoing equity market run. It is best to keep in mind however, that proclaimed plans by the agenda do not always come to fruition. This has put a bit of uncertainty on the markets, which are all sitting at or near all-time highs. As ‘Trump Trade’ has been stalling, expectations are being reset. Soon we will hit earnings season which is always the most valuable data for stocks.

Below are returns of the five major indexes through the first quarter:

BarCap US Agg Bond +0.82%

S&P 500 +6.07%

Russell 2000 +2.47%

MSCI EAFE (Europe) +7.25%

MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) +11.45%

We are anticipating another strong earnings season going forward, with even more support for the stock market coming from corporate guidance that will be optimistic. As many investors are nervous, it’s important to keep in mind that markets tend to disappoint the majority.

We have stuck to certain major themes at Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. over the last four years. Our allocations have focused on protecting against a rising rate environment, Financials and Energy both present attractive upside potential, and there’s more long-term value for investors within international markets than domestically. Investors who have remained patient are beginning to see these themes turn together. It remains important, as always, to remain patient as patience will be rewarded.

While the S&P 500 has been the best performing index over the last seven years, it’s important to remember that this positive run comes on the heels of a decade of being negative year over year. Investment cycles can take a very long time to play out, and reversion to the mean is real. We are seeing many investors chasing the S&P, but we will act contrarian as we typically do. The overblown move into Passive investing will in time bode well for active management and the allocations of our portfolios.

We thank you for your continued confidence and support. Please feel free to contact us directly to answer any further questions.

Sincerely,


Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.

New Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. has appointed a new Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager.

Portland, OR - We are pleased to announce that Paul Meeks is joining the Sloy, Dahl & Holst team. He brings an abundance of experience to our Investment Selection Committee. With experience being a Portfolio Manager and Equity Analyst for over 20 years, Paul will be a valuable asset to our team. While working with Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, he created the world’s largest technology mutual fund franchise which included six portfolios with almost &8 billion in assets to manage. Mr. Meeks is one of CNBC’s top ten Platinum Portfolio Managers and has been featured on television and in print since 1995.

Paul has a BA from Williams College and a MM (MBA) from Kellogg, where he represented considerable authority in finance and financial accounting. He has been a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) since 1996. Meeks has instructed at three colleges since 2005, and he holds a position as subordinate fund staff at Western Washington University. His enthusiasm for instruction has also led him to be the Chair of the Finance Committee at Bellingham Technical College. There, he and his better half, Mary, center their magnanimous giving. Paul will assume a key part in the improvement and usage of two restrictive portfolios while committing to investigating openings particular to Technology and Core divisions. Ron Sloy said "I'm eager to offer our customers access to an expert and director of Paul's gauge. He's the genuine article. I anticipate that he will assume a basic part in the proceedings with development and accomplishment of Sloy, Dahl & Holst."

About Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. is an enrolled, full-benefit budgetary consultative firm having expertise in Retirement Services. We are committed to our customers' monetary accomplishment. As a boutique investment house, we have the qualification of being one of the first fee-only firms in Oregon and have been chosen as one of the Financial Times Top 300 RIA Firms two years in a row.

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. - Financial Forecast 2017

Ron Sloy explains the 2017 market forecast, as well as the fourth quarter of 2016’s financial market review.


This information does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results.  Please contact your financial advisor and review the applicable prospectus for each investment before placing any trade.

3rd Market Review

Q3 2016 was positive across the board for us, although interesting. The primary indicator of market trading—earnings—we’re expected to be low, and were actually forecasted too low. A majority of earnings reports beat that bar, and the overall stock market saw growth. As you know, when companies do well their value increases, and the limited quantity of equity shares also increase in value. Previous troubling news has overwhelmed us, and that interaction can get lost.

Going forward, we’re still looking at a bumpy road to year end. With a global environment of extremely slow growth, action being awaited from the Federal Reserve, and an extremely bizarre presidential election cycle coming to a close, the only thing we know for certain is that there will be a new president.

Listed below are returns of five major indexes, through the third quarter;

BarCap US Agg Bond -- 5.80%

S&P 500 -- 7.84%

Russell 2000 -- 11.46%

MSCI EAFE (Europe) -- 1.73%

MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) -- 16.02%

Every single one of our five portfolios all exceeded Q3 expectations, with Technology, Emerging Markets, and domestic Small Cap stocks taking the lead. In addition, we saw significant promise in our Energy allocations, but it is an area we may consider trimming as oil prices start to near a $55/barrel price. We’re looking at High Yield fixed income as a chance for the same: to take profits and search for greater value. The highest performing stock is attributed to our individual Apple positions, which got back on track within the S&P for a 19% Q3 jump.

We need to expect unpredictability in Q4, fundamentally because of the current election cycle and the coming Brexit implications. That being said, we expect a quarter that trades on fundamentals and will be positive for stock returns. Tech, Emerging Markets, Small Cap stocks, and Energy are still our favored positions. We’re eyeing Financial positions for prominent growth as well, predicting that rising interest rates with be beneficial to the segment. That, in turn, is why we are moving away from bonds, Utilities, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (RETIs), that are sensitive to those interest rates.

Your continued confidence and support is greatly appreciated. Don’t hesitate to contact us if there’s anything we can do to help.

Happy Holidays!

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. Celebrates Clients with Annual Golf Tournament

The offices of Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. were closed Monday August 1st for their annual golf tournament in celebration of their clients, outstanding team and another terrific year capped off by their 2nd consecutive mention on the Financial Times Top 300 Registered investment Advisory Firms.

Coming in to help Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. celebrate were two special guests; Heather Lemaster, a World Long Drive Champion with several domestic and international wins, and Holly Sonders, a renowned collegiate golfer and on air talent for FOX Sports.

With special on-course refreshments provided by Morton's Steakhouse and Eastside Distilling, this exciting event held annually at the beautiful facilities of Columbia Edgewater Country Club were capped off by dinner and dancing with music from award-winning singer and Las Vegas' "Entertainer of the Year" Jimmy Hopper and successful business man and Rock bassist Bernt Bodal.

 

Ron Sloy gave warm introduction of Steve Ford at NWUCA Convention in Sunriver, Oregon

Son of former President Gerald R. Ford and Betty Ford, Steve Ford, was introduced by Ron Sloy at the Convention of the Northwest Utility Contractor’s Association in Sunriver, Oregon this year on Saturday, June 4. As a young man, Ron met the President and Mrs. Ford coincidentally in Palm Desert, California. He drew upon this experience to create a captivating introduction.


Steve spoke with uncommon insight, given the viewpoint of being the President’s son. This was why he was selected as the speaker. At 18-years-old, he was perpetually surrounded by ten Secret Service agents. His father was responsible for the pardon of President Nixon, putting to rest the infamous Watergate scandal. He was also able to touch upon the two attempts on his father’s life, along with his mother’s tragic turns with alcoholism and breast cancer.

Market Review: Q1 2016

The US stock market hasn’t seen such a great quarterly comeback since 1933. In fact, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 soared to positive territory by the end of this March, even though it had fallen more than 11% at the start of this year. Clearly this indicates that markets cannot be timed. This is remarkable, especially in terms of investor confidence, considering it was the second pullback of >10% in a six month period. Nonetheless, even though it had seemed the market was to spiral, it managed to bounce off the bottom set in August and abruptly move higher.

On February 9th, in his monthly Market Update video, Ron Sloy urged investors to keep calm and stay focused on the long term. By circumstance, two days later the Dow closed at 15,660 – the markets had bottomed. From that point to the end of the quarter, the market closed at 17,685—a benchmark move of 13%, a little higher than where it started in the past year.

Here we will find the Q1 returns of five major indexes, 2016:

BarCap US Agg Bond +3.03%

S&P 500          +1.35%

Russell 2000   -1.52%

MSCI EAFE (Europe)   -3.01%

MSCI EM (Emerging Markets)  +5.71%

The quarter was massively volatile. These indexes, in fact, barely reflect this. Take a look at the Barclays US Aggregate bond index, for example. Interest rates declined in the most historic and significant way in the last decade, yet this index managed to yield a quarterly return greater than 3% for less than 15% of the time. The erratic nature of the stocks ignited this return—don’t expect this trend to continue beyond Q1.

A bright spot marks our portfolio this quarter, thanks to our slight overweight position within the Energy sector. We also find value in Emerging Markets, thanks to good leadership. Unfortunately we have been disappointed with Q1 results from Financials, Technology, and Europe. However, there is outstanding potential and value for all 3—we certainly expect gained participation from these allocations throughout the year. In fact, we estimate that equity portfolios still have the potential for double digit returns, as markets have bottomed out for the year. As expected, however, continued volatility will remain. Stay calm and be patient.

Remember: markets can’t be timed, regardless of performance numbers, interest rates, and investment themes. Asset allocations must be chosen based on your personal time horizon and risk tolerance. And, this can’t be emphasized enough: stick to your long term goals. Through the good and the bad.

We value your confidence and support. Thank you, and please reach out directly if we can help in any way.

 

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.

Q4 Market Review 2015

Last year was unremarkable for the global markets, similar to what was seen in 2011. The S&P 500 closed at nearly 0.75% less than where it started at the beginning of 2015 (+1.38% total return including dividends). Overall the global market struggled, but there were a few sectors who finished positively. These included Health Care, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The worst performing sectors included Financial, Utility, and Material sectors. And the biggest loss was seen in the Energy sector, which finished at negative 23%, as oil prices per barrel decreased to the low $30’s.

As seen similarly in 2011, an extremely erratic market plagued investors in 2015. Because of these market patterns, diversified investment practices and value buys did not place investors in positive territory in 2015. Sloy, Dahl & Holst believes that many of these investments have yet to play out. Again, drawing similarities from Q3 and Q4 of 2011, investors who were patient were rewarded in the end.

Below are the year-end returns for 5 major indexes;

BarCap US Agg Bond                                       + 0.55%
S&P 500                                                            + 1.38%
Russell 2000                                                     - 4.41%
MSCI EAFE (Europe)                                        - 0.81%
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets)                          - 14.92%

Again, continued patience going into 2016 is essential to a successful year. There are recognizable opportunities within Financials, Technology, Energy, Health, Europe and the Emerging Markets that we are keeping an eye on. Though instant gratification is often sought when investing, it is important to keep in mind that the best investment opportunities rarely come to fruition immediately.

While it trailed other major global indices halfway through 2015, The S&P 500 regained its place at the top once volatility in China picked it up again. Sloy, Dahl & Holst will continue to have the majority of our equity positions within the USA. Nonetheless, in the coming years we will be looking for new leadership from international markets. Do not forget – the S&P 500 was negative for a decade from 2000 to 2010. Global diversification will be critical over the long term.

As always, we are here for you if you have any questions or concerns.

-          Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Incorporated. 

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc Market Review for December 2015

Ron Sloy, CFP of Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc. a financial services firm located in Portland, Oregon, give his analysis of the current market landscape. As expected, stability in the financial markets has returned in November. During October we mentioned that the market had bottomed out and it was a great time to purchase. Since that time, the Dow has risen around 2,500 points. We think the markets will continue to raise in December and expect a Santa Claus rally in anticipation of the  January effect, a rise in the market where funds often reinvest their portfolios.



Extensive Holiday Light Display Celebrates The Legacy Of Blazer Jerome Kersey

(PORTLAND, ORE.) –  A stunning new light show is being made in honor of Trail Blazer Jerome Kersey, who passed away not long ago. Including 3,800 lights, the larger than average Christmas ornament entitled "JK25 Santa Hat" will be shown at a West Hills home, and will be noticeable from downtown and southeast Portland. The installment is in its last phases and is expected to turned on this Friday November 13th.

The venture's originator, Ron Sloy, a dear companion of Kersey's for more than 30 years, planned to memorialize the Blazer forward in special kind of way. "Jerome was an amazing man both on and off the court," claims Sloy. “Not only was he a leading player for the Blazers, he was a valuable member of the community, always reaching out to enrich the lives of others.”

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Since Kersey passed away this February, there's been dialog in the Portland about resigning Kersey's shirt number, 25, in acknowledgment of his stellar execution with the Blazers.Bill Schonely, Blazers host for many years, believes Kersey was a talented competitor who made an impact on everyone he met“Jerome was loved by everyone. This unique display will allow Portlanders to celebrate his legacy.”

Constructing the enormous holiday display was a monumental task that required exact planning due to the complexity, size of the display and the complicated on-site issues. The 32’ feet high, and 34’ wide display incorporates a huge “JK25” Santa hat featuring 3,800 lights set on an aluminum frame and mounted on the front of a West Hills home. Designed and built by Hanset Stainless, the display took six weeks to construct, and a week to install. “This truly was a unique and challenging project,”claims Shane Crunch, project manager at Hanset Stainless.“Our whole team was excited to be a part of such a special project to honor a great member of the Portland community.” Crunchie believes the JK25 Santa hat may become a new Christmas fixture in the Portland Sky.

Sloy states that the display will be raised every holiday season in honor of his companion. “I hope that Portlanders will join me in recognizing all that Jerome did for the Blazers and for our community,” he states.Jerome’s number will be hanging high in our night sky for all to see. I hope it will also be hanging from the rafters before too long.”

Fans are encouraged to Tweet #JK25 and #RetireJerseyJK25 to join the conversation around retiring Kersey’s jersey number.

 

 

The 2015 Year in Review to Q3 by Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.

Q3 2015 was the worst performing financial quarter for the markets in the last four years. From the height to the bottom the S&P 500 dropped more than 11%, providing the first pullback greater than 10% since the third quarter of 2011. Although market volatility is unsettling, please bare in mind that corrections are a natural function of a healthy market.

Here are returns for five major indexes through September 30th:

BarCap US Agg Bond    + 1.13%
S&P 500 – 5.29%
Russell 2000 – 7.73%
MSCI EAFE (Europe)    – 5.28%
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) – 15.47%

The volatility in third quarter was driven primarily by two happenings; fear of a contraction in global growth (especially in China), and the uncertainty of action by the Fed. However, we think the recent pullback is simply a pause in the ongoing bull market and that the DOW reach 20,000 at sometime in 2016.

Third quarter corporate earnings expectations have been lowered to such an extreme that we expect many upside surprises. The U.S. economy is performing better than people believe, the European economy is growing, and the Emerging Markets (especially China) are still outpacing developed economies. The housing and auto sectors remain strong and we are seeing stabilization in energy. We think a rate hike in December is still imminent, which in our opinion would be positive for the financial markets. We continue to like the following sectors: Financials, Energy, Health, Technology, Europe and the Emerging Markets.

October has begun with a nice bounce, but we predict that volatility may continue for a while. However, by years-end we think the markets will realize a positive return.

We want to be the first to wish you and your family a fantastic, fun, and healthy holiday season.

As always, please feel free to contact us with any questions or concerns.

Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.